CrowdWisers™China trade talk schedule and more alternative data ?3
09:32 20-Oct-25
We should see more trade headlines this
week as Bessent resumes in person trade talks with China's Vice
Premier in Malaysia, ahead of a possible APEC meeting between
Trump and Xi at the end of the month, and a supposed tariff
deadline on November 10th. Anyone expecting more progress than
headlines should read this linked
article on how China continues to play the long game while
America focuses on day to day stories.
This service will also focus on the results of Argentina's midterm legislative elections on the 26th as a potential turning point in American influence. 127 of 257 Deputies seats are up for grabs, along with 24 out of 72 in the Senate. After some delay in Treasury intervention, where the currency has jumped as high as 1429, the peso has strengthened back 1357.5 to the dollar. However, Trump indicated yesterday that support would end if the election doesn't go Milei's way. Trump is apparently misinformed, being willfully ignorant, or perhaps just comparing to his own approval rating in characterizing Milei's polls as "pretty good" and damage is already being done. So, a result that merely maintains the status quo may not be good enough.
On 10/13/25 9:43 AM, Esekla wrote:
This service will also focus on the results of Argentina's midterm legislative elections on the 26th as a potential turning point in American influence. 127 of 257 Deputies seats are up for grabs, along with 24 out of 72 in the Senate. After some delay in Treasury intervention, where the currency has jumped as high as 1429, the peso has strengthened back 1357.5 to the dollar. However, Trump indicated yesterday that support would end if the election doesn't go Milei's way. Trump is apparently misinformed, being willfully ignorant, or perhaps just comparing to his own approval rating in characterizing Milei's polls as "pretty good" and damage is already being done. So, a result that merely maintains the status quo may not be good enough.
On 10/13/25 9:43 AM, Esekla wrote:
Although the market is rallying as the White House backpedals on initial rhetoric threatening harsher measures against China, I continue not to trust such statements. The Netherlands granting itself supervisory power over Chinese chip maker Nexperia seems indicative that of another coordinated geopolitical move like the one that has produced a ceasefire in Gaza. Apparently (at least temporary) peace in the Middle East is easier than getting Republicans and Democrats to agree on how to run the nation. However, with the federal shutdown about to enter its second week, effects on those who rely on the government are about to start filtering into the real economy. I think the shutdown already coincides with existing tariff effects showing up in inflation data, which makes Republicans happy to skip this week's normally scheduled retails sales and CPI print. Consequently, they have little incentive to end the standoff, especially when a raft of other data shows that mostly hurting the lowest income groups, and thus not the market.