November Labor Data from the BLS & ADP and more ?3

09:40 17-Dec-25

A formal blockade announcement against Venezuela is a non-issue for markets, after the tanker seizure in the Caribbean last week.  As projected last month, the market will only care about human exposure, which would mean boots on the ground, for the short term.  Brent barely even rose from the pricing cited below, and now trades back below $60.  For the longer term, what the market should be paying attention to is the openly imperialist tone implied by Trump's statements about using oil assets stolen by Venezuela.  This service notes that oil nationalization by the country in the 1970s was the result of democratic elections that were broadly considered legitimate.

Consequently, what investors should be watching here is the Ukraine news at the bottom of this note, since at best, the blockade is ramping pressure on Russia.  If the White House succeeds in getting its peace deal sound byte for Xmas, that may preempt military action on the ground in Venezuela, but it's hard to guess what Putin & Xi see as the best path forward from here.  Ukraine does seem prepared to compromise.

While markets wait on that, and SCotUS decisons next year, our parent CrowdWisers service will be preparing a 2026 outlook article, focusing on crypto and the effects of round the clock trading, as well as year-end website changes.  The latter may include making SATS analysis to date public now that the forecast SpaceX-related gains have be realized.  Also noteworthy is broad media coverage of Alphabet's 2015 SpaceX investment and the potential 12-digit windfall from an IPO.

Market leverage for November has also been made available, and it climbed to another record of 6.25x as cash eroded in margin accounts but flowed into retirement ones.  The rules seem to have changed with the advent of regulatory chaos, but there will have to be a reckoning between markets and the real economy eventually.  The most recent data on natural gas versus electricity pricing is still from before the federal government reopened.  So, no new chart there.

On 12/16/25 8:52 AM, CrowdWisers Administration wrote:

The Employment Situation Reports for November shows +64K jobs for the headline and a 4.6% unemployment rate.  The former figure is better than estimates by half, while the latter rising two tenths from is a tenth worse.  The Participation Rate and Employment Population Ratio moved up and down, respectively, each by a tenth to 62.5% and 59.6%.  Earnings rose +0.5%, but mostly due to an increase in hours worked.  There is also Establishment data for October which is generally and unsurprisingly negative.  Furthermore, we'll get CPI in two days.  Thus, FedWatch is still hovering around a 1 in 4 chance for a quarter point rate cut on January 28th, but shading upward by two percent.

Lending support, the ADP weekly update for the four weeks ended November 29th came in at +16.25K jobs, expanding the holiday hiring trend that started last week, though that figure appears to have been revised downward.

Ukraine has also confirmed a limited time security pledge offer from America for a peace deal with Russia that is endorsed by Europe.  The primary remaining sticking point seems to be ceding territory, but Brent and natural gas below $60 and $4 show that markets are taking the prospects of an agreement seriously.

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