Pending Home Sales & Trump v Cook Oral Arguments ?2

10:22 22-Jan-26

Both the headline and Core PCE numbers for October & November both came in at +0.2%.  Spending was also in line at +0.5% for both months, and incomes were lower than expected at +0.1% and +0.3%.    FedWatch for next week's meeting hasn't moved significantly.  Again, it seems correct that the market ignore this data, mostly because it is so dated, but also due to the potential for interference.

The market got a TACO bump yesterday afternoon from Trump's statement that he will not use military force to support his ambitions on Greenland, and that looks set to continue this morning.  However, there was little else comforting in Davos, or in America, where whistleblowers have surfaced a private ICE policy of forcing entry into homes without a judicial warrant.  It seems unlikely that such practices can hold up in court, but that's an issue that may not be settled before the midterms.  It also remains to be seen whether or not we'll have to wait that long before the market breaks its addiction to momentary technical data points.  

PCE for October & November won't be released until 10AM today, and I continue to doubt that they matter much.  This service is likely to update this note with the numbers anyway, just to be complete.

On 1/21/26 11:22 AM, CrowdWisers Administration wrote:

Pending Home Sales for December dropped significantly, raising the medium to long term market concerns that this service has long considered.

That is offset by live oral argument on Trump v. Cook before the SCotUS, even conservative Trump appointees like Barrett and Kavanaugh are sharply questioned Sauer on why they are hearing this as an emergency action at all.  Sauer's contention that social media suffices as procedure also seems extremely weak.  

Clement's argument is now underway, but this service projects that the court will maintain the injunction keeping Cook in place at least until an actual trial is concluded.  That in turn mitigates some of the long term rate environment concern voiced by our parent CrowdWisers service yesterday:

On 1/20/26 9:23 AM, Esekla wrote:

My analysis on that earnings report also mentioned the rate environment, which is looking more challenging this morning, as the Yen rates that I warned about two and a half years ago spike again in advance of a February 8th snap Japanese election called by the PM after just 3 months in office.  This looks like the another step toward lower leverage after I heralded the initial BoJ rate hike as the end of negative rates globally.  That is negative for Yield stocks and large or debt laden companies over the medium to long term as shown by American equity futures this morning.  It is also bleeding into other currencies resulting in significant dollar weakness, which would typically cushion the trading reaction in stocks for the short term.  PCE figures on Wednesday morning would normally be pivotal, but that will be delayed data for November.  As already discussed, this service will look to pending home sales that same morning and monitor treasury auction results over the next week or so.

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