The Hormuz Ultimatum and Reshaping of Hydrocarbon Trade ?3

08:58 23-Mar-26


This service has watched the downward slide of American Equity Futures all weekend, following Trump's Hormuz ultimatum and pondered the reasoning, if any, behind it.  While this service agrees that carrying out strikes against Iranian power plants would cause far more immediate harm to civilians than Iran's military and could constitute a war crime, consideration in a broader context seems useful.

Now, about 12 hours ahead of his deadline, Trump is claiming that conversation with Tehran is causing him to delay strikes against power plants and energy infrastructure for five days, while those talks continue:
Based on the tenor and tone of these in depth, detailed, and constructive conversations, witch [sic] will continue throughout the week, I have instructed the Department of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure for a five day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions
First, it's important to note that local and global news sites are reporting that Tehran denies that any talks have even taken place.  Regardless of the reality (or lack thereof) behind any justifications for any recent action in the Middle East, one thing is clear: Trump got what he wanted this morning; American equity futures have reversed sharply.

Second, the distinction between power plants and hydrocarbon facilities is an important one.  America's military would likely need to move more troops and weaponry to successfully occupy Kharg Island or fully disable Iran's ability to block the Strait of Hormuz.  Both of those, taken together with American operations in Venezuela, would point to a long term goal of shifting hydrocarbon trade toward the west.

In summary, Democrats are right about one thing - Trump's ultimatum on Friday reeks of desperation.  However, that probably does NOT signal an end to its war in the Middle East.  Our parent CrowdWisers service is detailing individual stock picks in response, but index participants with more than a day-trading focus might do well to fade this morning's gains.