Monthly Charts for May and more ?3

10:30 17-Jun-26

Pending Home Sales for May rose 3.8% sequentially, shattering expectations that topped out around a percent.  Volume is almost completely in the NorthEast and MidWest.  That puts the employment and productivity trend this service foresaw at the beginning of March and updated last month into high gear.  That note concluded:

It now looks like that runway is shortening.  Don't be surprised to see this trend gradually spread, with falling home prices in conjunction with sticky inflation boding very poorly for overvalued stocks.

The big drop in available cash in retirement accounts seems to confirm that a thawing real estate market is sapping retail investor capital from market, and that is often driven by changes in the labor market.  If home prices also continue to drop that will spell real, but not immediate, trouble for American stock markets.

In May, market leverage rebounded to narrowly beat the all-time record set back in January of this year.  Free credit balances in cash accounts also took their largest drop since September of 2023.  Consequently, this note is likely to be updated with Pending Home Sales data and commentary after it is released at 10AM today.

Despite the war against Iran, American prices for natural gas remained historically elevated but fairly steady.  However, those for electricity rose to another all-time high.

This service sees it as no coincidence that details of the agreement with Iran will be signed with American markets closed going into a long weekend due to Juneteenth.

On 6/15/26 9:10 AM, while commenting extensively on market opportunities created by initial SPCX trading, Esekla wrote:

Markets look set to jump this morning as traders buy into vague reports of an MoU with Iran, set to be signed on Friday.  Initial indications are that it will leave the regime in Tehran better funded and significantly weaken its JCPOA nuclear parameters.  Regardless, I do think this signals an end to the American war against Iran, somewhat sooner than the July cessation that I had penciled in.  The risk on attitude is being confirmed by Fox buying Roku at a one third premium.
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I see this as a wild west era that will only rationalize when competitive results, and most importantly, net profitability have been assessed, probably resulting in substantial pruning of both products and enthusiastic investors.  Currently every incumbent power is conspiring to manipulate the market and specific stocks like INTC and SPCX upward, but that doesn't change profitability, and thus it won't change long term valuations. 

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