June CPI and Warsh Remarks to Congress +3

09:40 15-Jul-26

The BLS has PPI numbers for June at -0.3% for the headline and +0.1% for Core, versus expectations for a flat reading and a +0.3%, respectively.  To the extent that the market pays attention to PPI at all, this provides follow through on yesterday's CPI positivity.  Warsh will also continue his testimony with the Senate this morning, but I doubt there will be anything new to report.

The only thing we learned from just-concluded testimony from Warsh is that whatever Fed regime change he eventually ushers in, the primary metric won't be called Trimmed Mean PCE.  In questioning from Ritchie Torres toward the end of the session, he acknowledged that the metric trailed others in predicting and measuring inflation.  As ever, the devil will be in the details, and this service will delve into the calculations it does adopt when they are eventually made clear.

On 7/14/26 9:48 AM, Esekla wrote:

The BLS CPI numbers for June headlined at -0.4% and the Core figure was flat, both at least two tenths less than projected.  American equity futures were already positive, but improved further on the news.  This may raise concerns for the retail sales figure, which comes out Thursday morning, but it is nonetheless positive for the market, and after topping out above 41%, the FedWatch figure cited yesterday is plummeting to 15.5% so far, in keeping with the expectation documented there.

If Fed Chair Warsh is to be believed in his opening remarks to Congress, ALL investment will eventually be AI investment.  This service doubts that, noting that Warsh doubles down on delivering on target inflation figures, and referring again to yesterday's commentary on accomplishing that by moving the goal posts with Trimmed Mean PCE. 

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